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Wind power will shine again in 2023.

Release time:2023-02-20     Views
Accordingtothe"14thFive-YearPlan"forthemodernenergysystem,theamountofwindandphotovoltaicpowergenerationisexpectedtodoubleduringtheperiod.Specifically,thenewlyinstalledcapacityofwindpowerisexpectedtore...

According to the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the modern energy system, the amount of wind and photovoltaic power generation is expected to double during the period. Specifically, the newly installed capacity of wind power is expected to reach 300 GW, with a cumulative installed capacity of 581GW by 2025. As of October 2022, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power is 348GW, which is still 67% away from the target. Moreover, this is just the domestic demand and does not include the incremental demand from overseas markets.

In 2020, due to subsidy policies, there was a rush to install onshore wind power in China. This was followed by a similar trend for offshore wind power in 2021. Both waves of high demand boosted the performance of the entire wind power industry chain, including wind power equipment, resin, curing agents, and other related products. However, in 2022, the industry rapidly entered a downturn cycle. Macro-economic pressure combined with supply chain issues resulted in a shortage of wind power product components. This, in turn, led to slower-than-expected installation rates in the industry.

According to industry statistics, the domestic wind turbine bidding volume from January to October 2022 was 91.72GW, an increase of 90.09% year-on-year. Among them, the bidding volume for onshore wind turbines was 68.10GW, an increase of 47.82%, and the bidding volume for offshore wind turbines was 23.62GW. The market expects the scale to exceed 100GW this year, which is likely to exceed expectations. Generally speaking, wind power installation is executed in a 3:7 ratio between the current year and the following year. Based on the above scale, coupled with the increment in 2023, there is a good chance that the actual new installed capacity will exceed 70GW, even surpassing the record high achieved in 2020.

In May 2022, the European Union announced its "REPowerEU" action plan, which raised the renewable energy proportion target to 45%. The plan also includes a target of cumulative installed capacity of 480GW for wind power by 2030. Meanwhile, Asian countries such as Vietnam, Japan, and South Korea are accelerating their wind power construction plans, resulting in increased demand for wind power products from China.

As the home field of wind and photovoltaic industries, China has always been at the forefront of the global market in terms of production capacity and electricity cost. With the increasing plans from overseas regions, the demand for wind, solar, and other renewable products from China is expected to be even greater. Another change comes from the drop in manufacturing costs for wind power products. The primary materials for wind turbines, such as towers, blades, gearboxes, hubs, converters, and generators, involve steel, copper, epoxy resins, and other materials. This year, the prices of these materials have been relatively low compared to the past two years, especially for steel, which is the most used material. This has contributed significantly to cost reduction, although some products have seen a slight decline in sales prices. However, with future scalability and delivery, the benefits of increased scale profits will be realized.

Another major highlight of wind power is the unexpected emergence of incremental demand for offshore wind power. As of October 2022, the planned scale for offshore wind power in China's coastal provinces during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is nearly 70GW for grid connection and over 90GW for construction, both of which have exceeded expectations. Internationally, in May of last year, Denmark, Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands jointly signed a document committing to increasing their collective offshore wind power installed capacity ten times, from 16GW to 150GW by 2050. By 2030, the total installed capacity of offshore wind power is expected to reach 65GW. At the same time, the United States is expected to add at least 30GW of offshore wind power by 2030, and the United Kingdom has increased its offshore wind power installation target for 2030 from 40GW to 50GW. The explosive growth rate of offshore wind turbines is much higher than that of onshore wind power. It is expected that the performance of offshore wind power in 2023 will exceed many people's expectations.


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